Sunday, February 12, 2023 at 1:21 PM
MATIC/BTC - Weekly time frame - MATIC trading near the top end of a range, seemingly also bouncing off support after recently breaking out of a bull flag.
Polygon
Bitcoin

MATIC/BTC is currently trading within 10% of its all time high. This is obviously something you can say for very few other altcoins. Personally, I don't know of any.

Given that the established pattern is for altcoins to devalue against Bitcoin during a bear market, the current development for MATIC seems to warrant discussion. Indeed, looking at the historical price action for MATIC against Bitcoin, we see more signs that another large breakout may be looming.

It's fairly easy to see that MATIC/BTC has primarily spent its time trading inside two ranges. After bouncing off support in its first range on January 2021, it finally broke through and rallied until May to establish new resistance. Since then, MATIC/BTC has chopped inside the new range and is finding itself close to bumping up against resistance yet again.

What makes this all the more interesting is that within range number two, by connecting the lows coming off of the May rejection, we see that a descending channel pattern appears in the form of a bull flag.

Moreover, we can see a channel encompassing the rally that has led to this point. After a sharp bounce off range support in June '22, MATIC consolidated below the descending channel resistance level before a sharp break out all the way to range resistance. Now it seems to have bounced off of the former resistance, now flipped to support, after some consolidation and is headed back to range resistance.

If we focus our attention on the whole picture, we can without a doubt consider the price action since October '22 consolidation below range resistance. I do think that we need to see some more range bound action between 6-6.6k satoshis before MATIC can decisively break above and enter price discovery.

As to what that target looks like, we can only speculate based on what we see. The setup that is most apparent to me is using the breakout of range number one as the pole for the bull flag. By positioning the pole at range support, which is the base for the current rally, we get a target in the 20k satoshi area. That roughly coincides with current channel resistance around August.

That would be quite a rally.

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